{"id":82007,"date":"2025-11-07T07:00:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T10:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=82007"},"modified":"2025-11-17T14:08:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T17:08:12","slug":"biased-data-why-the-pre-electoral-opinion-polling-published-following-rio-de-janeiros-mega-police-operation-is-misleading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=82007","title":{"rendered":"Why the Pre-Electoral Opinion Polling Published Following Rio de Janeiro&#8217;s \u2018Mega Police Operation\u2019 Is Misleading"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_82045\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-82045\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal.jpeg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-82045 size-full\" title=\"According to one of the recent poll, 87% of Rio's favelas residents supposedly support the police operation that led to the deadliest massacre in Rio de Janeiro's History. Nevertheless, nation-wide favela-led post-massacre protests have shown otherwise. The sign reads 'Resident, Not a Criminal.' Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" src=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal.jpeg\" alt=\"According to one of the recent poll, 87% of Rio's favelas residents supposedly support the police operation that led to the deadliest massacre in Rio de Janeiro's History. Nevertheless, nation-wide favela-led post-massacre protests have shown otherwise. The sign reads 'Resident, Not a Criminal.' Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal-620x413.jpeg 620w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal-944x629.jpeg 944w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Nation-wide-favela-led-post-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-The-sign-reads-Resident-Not-a-Criminal-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-82045\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">According to one of the recent polls, 87% of Rio&#8217;s favela residents support the police operation that led to the deadliest massacre in the city&#8217;s history. In this image taken at the October 31 favela-led post-massacre protest in Complexo da Penha, the sign reads &#8216;[Favela] residents are not criminals.&#8217; Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3JZB4Zo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>Clique aqui para Portugu\u00eas<\/em><\/strong><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23766 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/PT-e1439583827971.png\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Tuesday, October 28, Brazil\u2019s <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/47OuQ7M\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">deadliest police operation<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> resulted in <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4hGYC1z\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">over 120 people dead<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, leaving bodies behind wherever they fell, strewn for neighbors and families to retrieve, in the <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2XRgRuR\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alem\u00e3o<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2CYrDGT\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penha<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> favela complexes of Rio de Janeiro\u2019s <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2IgR5qe\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">North Zone<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Rather than seeking to understand the distress and fear this generated across the city, the <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/45CNewP\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">media narrative<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and public security debate quickly morphed into a struggle over public opinion. In this exchange, superficial opinion polls\u2014all funded by unknown sources\u2014took over the debate.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h3><strong>State Violence, 2026 Election, and the Power of Polling\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the face of such terrible human carnage, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2XkgcQB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Governor Cl\u00e1udio Castro<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of Rio de Janeiro congratulated his administration for the operation, which he called a success. \u201cThe only victims were the four police officers killed,\u201d <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/47Vtc4j\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">he claimed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, characterizing other casualties as merely \u201cdead criminals.\u201d Hundreds of human rights groups, social movements and local residents&#8217; associations across Brazil denounced the police incursion as nothing short of a massacre.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DQZrpfXDcVL\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DQZrpfXDcVL\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por United Nations Human Rights (@unitednationshumanrights)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>These starkly contrasting interpretations have been reflected in media coverage of the event, which has often included graphic images of rows of\u2014sometimes mutilated\u2014corpses and grieving relatives with little respect for the sensibilities of families, friends and neighbors of those affected.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This reflects a familiar dilemma as it is often perceived by Rio natives: either to support <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?tag=police-massacre\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">violent police operations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that blatantly trample on human rights, or the everyday reality of organized crime restricting residents\u2019 rights in countless neighborhoods. It\u2019s this problematic dualism that helps explain why aggressive operations apparently remain popular among a significant slice of citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_82046\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-82046\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-82046 size-full\" title=\"On October 28, Brazil\u2019s deadliest police operation left over 120 people dead in the sprawling Alem\u00e3o and Penha favela complexes of Rio de Janeiro\u2019s North Zone. Protests demanding justice erupted. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" src=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone.jpeg\" alt=\"On October 28, Brazil\u2019s deadliest police operation left over 120 people dead in the sprawling Alem\u00e3o and Penha favela complexes of Rio de Janeiro\u2019s North Zone. Protests demanding justice erupted. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone-620x413.jpeg 620w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone-944x629.jpeg 944w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/October-28-Brazils-deadliest-police-operation-left-over-120-people-dead-in-the-sprawling-Alemao-and-Penha-favela-complexes-of-Rio-de-Janeiros-North-Zone-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-82046\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">On October 28, Brazil\u2019s deadliest police operation left over 120 people dead in the sprawling Alem\u00e3o and Penha favela complexes of Rio de Janeiro\u2019s North Zone. Protests demanding justice erupted. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the days since the tragedy, right-wing state governors\u2014and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gazetadopovo.com.br\/brasil\/governador-petista-ce-comemora-morte-membros-cv\/\">even some left-wing ones<\/a>\u2014moved quickly to transform it into a political rallying point. Castro, alongside his conservative counterparts (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4hGnQgP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Romeu Zema<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minas Gerais<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/47J5mrp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">S\u00e3o Paulo<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/47Bd2vF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ronaldo Caiado<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of Goi\u00e1s, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4nCgfBc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jorginho Mello<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Santa Catarina<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">), announced the formation of a \u201cshadow security cabinet\u201d to coordinate efforts against organized crime, focused initially on Rio. Likewise, congressional leaders have promised to reinvigorate efforts to promote long-stalled security proposals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The subtext to this flurry of activity appears to be to portray the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/politica\/popularidade-do-governo-lula-tem-recuperacao-consistente-diz-ceo-da-quaest\/\">increasingly popular<\/a> federal administration of <a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?tag=lula\">President <\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?tag=lula\">Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva<\/a>\u2014perhaps especially given its potential to consolidate popularity in passing a <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4nABxza\">new law strengthening efforts against criminal groups<\/a>\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">as <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">passive and unprepared<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the face of violent crime. Having lost battles over <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3LNNyUs\">national sovereignty<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4osrldn\">tax justice<\/a>, Brazil&#8217;s right appears poised to center the issue of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">public<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> security<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> prior to the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2026 general elections<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Fear of crime and violence is a very effective wedge issue among potentially uncommitted voters.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is in this context that mainstream Brazilian media attention has shifted from the astonishing number of fatalities to the nature of public opinion in the aftermath of the raid. Being attuned to\u2014and influencing\u2014the nature of public opinion, and having the ability to represent it as favorable, even despite the barbarity, is crucial to the agenda of Brazil&#8217;s extreme right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note to readers: as we analyze the lightning-speed opinion polls that have taken place in the past week, it is critical to note that in Brazil non-electoral polls are not required to register their clients. That is, we do not know who paid for these surveys&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Opinion Seeking Versus Opinion Shaping<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the week following the police operation, at least four separate firms conducted public opinion polls regarding popular perception of the police incursion in Alem\u00e3o and Penha. It\u2019s unknown who commissioned these surveys, but the results feed into the growing right-wing political discourse around public security and have reached different audiences in a variety of ways.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The four polls employed different methodologies, in particular with regard to forms of data collection.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3Lpbcqr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Datafolha<\/em> poll<\/a> interviewed 626 residents of the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan region by telephone on <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">October 30-31. It recorded a margin of error of four percentage points and affirmed 57% thought the operation was successful, 48% believed it was well-executed, and over 80% believed that most if not all of those killed were criminals.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQhPQiLk0u1\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQhPQiLk0u1\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por Cafecomgaza (@cafecomgaza)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Atlas Intelligence<\/em> (<em>AtlasIntel<\/em>) <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3JDRAOL\">conducted a poll<\/a> of adult residents of Rio de Janeiro who were randomly recruited to complete an online survey by responding to a banner ad. The survey was conducted on October 29-30 with 1,527 respondents and a margin of error of three percentage points. It concludes that, in the city of Rio, 62.2% approve of the operation and 80% of Rio&#8217;s favela residents support the operation (while only 51% of those outside favelas approve).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>AtlasIntel<\/em> also conducted a survey with the same questions placed to a national sample (broken down by the country\u2019s five geographical regions rather than by state) and subsequently published a <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3LrcRvt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">comparison report<\/a> of the two surveys, which indicated a more negative reaction towards Rio&#8217;s police actions nationally than locally.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQe74BEjz3P\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQe74BEjz3P\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por Di\u00e1rio do Rio (@diariodorio)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/49BYsqg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Paran\u00e1 Pesquisas<\/em> study<\/a> was based on in-person interviews with 800 residents of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro on October 30, recording a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The sample was selected from across the city proportionally to population size and subsequently according to demographic variables. This study concluded that 69.6% of Rio locals support the operations.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQfGJZokxSp\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQfGJZokxSp\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por BandNews TV (@bandnewstv)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4hH3qUO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Genial Investments\/Quaest<\/em><\/a> conducted surveys at the homes of 1,500 residents of the State of Rio de Janeiro (over the age of 16) on <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">October 30-31, with half through oral, half written questionnaire. The respondents were selected from 40 municipalities proportional to size and demographic characteristics. The margin of error was estimated at three percentage points. It states that 64% of Rio State residents approve of the operation.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQkLIJDAYZR\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQkLIJDAYZR\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por A Reda\u00e7\u00e3o (@jornalaredacao)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All four studies concluded that a solid majority of those surveyed approved of the police activity in Alem\u00e3o and Penha, although they reported varying levels of support.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQg-iGwjyBl\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DQg-iGwjyBl\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por UOL Not\u00edcias (@uolnoticias)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most coverage of the surveys focused on the findings of general support for the police action, making that the headline, without delving much into findings, sharing only basic methodological details such as sample size and margins of error.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the theme of public acquiescence characterized most treatments, very few news pieces reported this opinion research more thoroughly. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4onwm6F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>O Globo<\/em>\u2019s treatment of the data<\/a> from the <em>Genial\/Quaest<\/em> survey entered into more detail, describing how &#8220;the incident did not change residents&#8217; perception of security and amplified the feeling that the state is living in a &#8216;war-like atmosphere&#8217;.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All reports failed to discuss the potential limitations of extrapolating on a complex topic from polls with such limited and superficial questions.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" style=\"background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);\" data-instgrm-captioned=\"\" data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DQhEMWeDWdv\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\">\n<div style=\"padding: 16px;\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;\">Ver esta publica\u00e7\u00e3o no Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto;\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;\"><a style=\"color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DQhEMWeDWdv\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Uma publica\u00e7\u00e3o partilhada por Thais Ferreira (@sou_thaisferreira)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Why Polling Methodology\u2014and Reader Scrutiny\u2014Matters<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>One of the first questions regarding the representativeness or accuracy of survey or poll research data is the issue of sample size. Opinion research is conducted via samples because it is impossible to study the entire population in the time span an opinion study requires. Conclusions drawn from samples are intended to be reliably generalized to the population.<\/p>\n<p>Of concern here is the <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>AtlasIntel<\/em><\/span> survey whose findings were extrapolated to make claims about the opinions of Rio\u2019s favela residents themselves (rather than the city\u2019s population as a whole). What was the sample size for this particular population (and for different categories of respondents in general)? What about the diversity of favelas and their inhabitants: where they are located in the city, how close or distant they are from the police operation, if and what armed group currently controls them\u2014beyond trafficking factions, there are <a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=63897\">vigilante police militias<\/a> that are widely known to control public opinion and behavior, and that control <em>more<\/em> favelas than drug traffickers.<\/p>\n<p>Research in and on favelas is complex and hence why even the national census fails to accurately reflect these areas. Residents\u2014especially those at lower income levels within their communities\u2014suffer from energy and Internet access issues, Internet literacy issues, and are chronically over-worked. Who are the &#8220;half dozen&#8221; favela residents interviewed and how can they be expected to represent 1.4 million people?<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_82047\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-82047\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-82047 size-full\" title=\"Protest on motorcycles following Alem\u00e3o and Penha Massacre. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" src=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\" alt=\"Protest on motorcycles following Alem\u00e3o and Penha Massacre. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-620x413.jpeg 620w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-944x629.jpeg 944w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Protest-on-motorcycles-following-Alemao-and-Penha-Massacre.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-82047\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Protest on motorcycles following Alem\u00e3o and Penha Massacre. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is yet another manifestation of a <a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2XB2ywt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">longstanding problem<\/a>: the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/3ZuUjMn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exclusion and generalization of voices<\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from peripheral communities in public discourse and civic debate. Mainstream media outlets have historically painted favelas with crude brushstrokes, falling back on <\/span>traditional stereotypes<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in ways that delegitimize or obscure the diverse and complex concerns and opinions of favela residents.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Those who lack reliable access to the Internet or do so primarily through apps on their phone (rather than via a web browser\u2019s landing page) are less likely to be exposed to banner ads for polls and, in the age of IP geolocation, very unlikely to respond to a time-consuming survey soliciting potentially jeopardizing opinions about the actions of the police in their communities.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The combination of a reliance on historical stereotypes and simplifications and the use of methodologies that are blind to the realities of favela lives means that favela opinions simply cannot be ascertained from this survey, and attempting to do so is irresponsible.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_82049\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-82049\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-82049 size-full\" title=\"Favela opinion continues to be either distorted or misrepresented by all the four polls analyzed. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" src=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\" alt=\"Favela opinion continues to be either distorted or misrepresented by all the four polls analyzed. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-620x413.jpeg 620w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-944x629.jpeg 944w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Favela-opinion-continues-to-be-either-distorted-or-misrepresented-by-all-the-four-polls-analyzed.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-82049\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Protest on motorcycles following Alem\u00e3o and Penha Massacre. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some of these polls were conducted by phone during the last two days of October. The numbers were either randomly generated\u2014like spam marketing calls\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or based on publicly available subscriber registration data. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What groups have the time (and inclination) to answer a fairly long list of questions about relatively sensitive issues over the phone to a stranger (or an AI-generated interlocutor)?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In both developed and developing countries around the world, response rates for polling have been <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/why-election-polling-has-become-less-reliable\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">increasingly unreliable<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014as famously reflected in the accuracy of political polling in recent years.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For this reason, pollsters have attempted to come up with more statistically viable means to apprehend survey subjects. One employed here, \u201cRandom Digital Recruitment\u201d [RDR], is a proprietary methodology developed by <em>AtlasIntel<\/em> with the aim of creating robust samples that are more representative of the target population. It provides a means to gather survey respondents online by targeting users based on their web browsing behavior and demographics. This approach aims to ensure a representative sample by adjusting for non-response bias and demographic variables.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0RDR has a reputation in the industry <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4qMWt92\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for election result prediction<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It was ranked by industry observers as the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/49wxlwU\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">most accurate pollster<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of the 2020 United States presidential election and accurately predicted electoral results in various Latin American countries. That said, election polling is very different from opinion polling. And<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0RDR strategies produce more reliable data when based on large national samples rather than smaller samples at the urban level.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Sensationalism May Sell, but Neither Educates, Nor Informs<\/strong><\/h3>\n<figure id=\"attachment_82051\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-82051\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-82051 size-full\" title=\"The sign reads 'More than a 100 Lost Lives Is Not Success! #enoughwiththemassacre #favelalivesmatter'. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" src=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg\" alt=\"The sign reads 'More than a 100 Lost Lives Is Not Success! #enoughwiththemassacre #favelalivesmatter'. Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro\" width=\"1280\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-620x413.jpeg 620w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-944x629.jpeg 944w, https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/The-sign-reads-More-than-a-100-Lost-Lives-Is-Not-Success.-Photo-Vinicius-Ribeiro-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-82051\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The sign reads &#8216;More than a 100 Lost Lives Is Not Success! #EnoughWithTheMassacre #FavelaLivesMatter.&#8217; Photo: Vin\u00edcius Ribeiro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The issue here is not the poll results, but how such oversimplified questions\u2014useful in an election survey but useless in understanding widespread opinion on such a complex issue as public security\u2014<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">contribute to misinformation and the fears that underly the very subject, especially when reported on without critical interpretation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Universo_Online\">world&#8217;s largest Portuguese-speaking portal<\/a>, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UOL, <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reported survey data on the raid on its own site and various social media platforms. Particularly egregious was its lurid and sensational coverage of the <em>AtlasIntel<\/em> survey just discussed. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>UOL<\/em> promoted its multi-slide coverage of <em>AtlasIntel<\/em>\u2019s poll results with an initial image of a row of dead victims\u2019 corpses\u2014almost all partially naked young Black men\u2014surrounded by grieving relatives and friends. Superimposed on this <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/4olwSSH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">horrific image<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was the statement that &#8220;87.6% of Rio\u2019s favela residents approve of the mega-operation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only on the very last slide (of 16), itself superimposed over the image of a bloody hand protruding from a shroud, was it noted that the results were the product of online interviews of 1,527 residents of Rio de Janeiro. It is not evident from the published survey results what number (or indeed percentage) of these respondents were living in favelas. So, while the 87.6% figure may be eye-catching, as explained above, it is effectively useless.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not clear if the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UOL <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">coverage was an attempt to shape public opinion around the growing public security debate or just a callous attempt at clickbait; either way, it is not primarily about sharing helpful information\u2014as journalism is supposed to be\u2014and did little to elucidate <em>AtlasIntel<\/em>\u2019s research results, much less Rio citizens&#8217; fears and concerns around the state of public security. And this is only one case amid a myriad of poorly reported news pieces on the October 28 Penha and Alem\u00e3o massacre and the 121 assassinated by the police forces.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">Support\u00a0<\/b><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><i data-stringify-type=\"italic\">RioOnWatch<\/i><\/b><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\">\u2019s tireless, critical and cutting-edge hyperlocal journalism, online community organizing meetings, and direct support to favelas\u00a0<\/b><b data-stringify-type=\"bold\"><a class=\"c-link\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/DonateToRioOnWatch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-stringify-link=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/DonateToRioOnWatch\" data-sk=\"tooltip_parent\">by clicking here.<\/a><\/b><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Clique aqui para Portugu\u00eas On Tuesday, October 28, Brazil\u2019s deadliest police operation resulted in over 120 people dead, leaving bodies behind wherever they fell, strewn for neighbors and families to retrieve, in the Alem\u00e3o and <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=82007\" title=\"Why the Pre-Electoral Opinion Polling Published Following Rio de Janeiro&#8217;s \u2018Mega Police Operation\u2019 Is Misleading\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":209,"featured_media":82045,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-full.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2637,1288,1282,336,1329],"tags":[1361,2630,2713,3149,32,1396,3122,595,2038,23,1900,1366,918,2847,37,17,2910,2481,809,740,243,268,31],"writer":[3823],"translator":[],"illustrator":[],"photographer":[3656],"class_list":{"0":"post-82007","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mediawatch","8":"category-highlight","9":"category-research-analysis","10":"category-violations","11":"category-by-international-observers","12":"tag-endfavelastigma","13":"tag-civil-police","14":"tag-claudio-castro","15":"tag-complexo-da-penha","16":"tag-complexo-do-alemao","17":"tag-criminalization-of-poverty","18":"tag-data","19":"tag-elections","20":"tag-lula","21":"tag-mass-media","22":"tag-media-narrative","23":"tag-analyzing-media-portrayal-of-favelas","24":"tag-military-police","25":"tag-minas-gerais","26":"tag-north-zone","27":"tag-police-brutality","28":"tag-police-massacre","29":"tag-police-violence","30":"tag-public-security","31":"tag-research-findings","32":"tag-serra-da-misericordia","33":"tag-state-violence","34":"tag-vila-cruzeiro","35":"writer-scott-salmon","36":"photographer-vinicius-ribeiro"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=82007"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82140,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82007\/revisions\/82140"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/82045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=82007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=82007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=82007"},{"taxonomy":"writer","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fwriter&post=82007"},{"taxonomy":"translator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftranslator&post=82007"},{"taxonomy":"illustrator","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fillustrator&post=82007"},{"taxonomy":"photographer","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fphotographer&post=82007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}