{"id":83765,"date":"2026-07-16T11:02:50","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=83765"},"modified":"2026-07-16T11:19:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T14:19:57","slug":"in-the-context-of-climate-overshoot-cities-are-the-crucible-and-the-fire-that-drive-the-change-we-need-says-ipccs-debra-roberts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rioonwatch.org\/?p=83765","title":{"rendered":"In the Context of Climate Overshoot, ‘Cities Are the Crucible and Fire That Drive the Change We Need, and That Change Will be Realized Through Housing,’ Says IPCC Coordinating Lead Author"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Dona<\/a>
Norma de Morais, 70, an elderly retired woman living in Jardim Am\u00e9rica in Rio’s North Zone, sits alone on her sofa, taking in the destruction left in her living room after flooding in January 2024. She then attempts to behave normally in her kitchen despite the waist-high contaminated flood water. As climate change intensifies, such scenes are becoming increasingly common, disproportionately affecting the world’s most vulnerable communities. Photo Source: Personal Archive<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Held at UN-Habitat<\/a> headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, from June 21\u201324, the 2026 Innovate4Cities Conference (I4C26)<\/a> brought together city leaders, researchers, policymakers, civil society organizations and community representatives from around the world to discuss practical solutions for climate-resilient and more equitable cities. Co-hosted by UN-Habitat and the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy<\/a>, the conference focused on translating research into public policy and action, with themes ranging from housing and infrastructure to climate justice, financing and multilevel governance.<\/em><\/p>\n

The following remarks were delivered by Professor Debra Roberts<\/a>, Honorary Professor at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (School of Life Sciences), South Africa and Coordinating Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (<\/span>IPCC) upcoming Special Report on Climate Change and Cities<\/a> (due in 2027), as well as the UNEP Overshoot Report (September 2026). The presentation was given during the High Level Panel on Housing and Infrastructure<\/a>, exploring how low-carbon, climate-resilient housing and infrastructure systems can generate multiple co-benefits from improved public health and reduced emissions to enhanced biodiversity and social cohesion. Professor Roberts is also an expert on<\/em> how cities can respond to the growing risks associated with a world in overshoot\u2014when we pass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5\u00b0C warming threshold<\/a>\u00a0and then return through a process of rapid emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal, accompanied by ambitious adaptation.<\/em><\/p>\n

Recent research shows that we are likely to exceed 1.5\u00b0C of global warming<\/a> over the next four years. The world is going to fundamentally change. The world post 1.5\u00b0C is a world our civilization has never lived in. We know it’s going to be a world of irreversible loss, it’s going to be a world in which we see an increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme events<\/a>, all of which will make the lives of the poor and vulnerable in the informal settlements much tougher<\/a> than they are now.<\/p>\n

This will challenge the way we build our cities, and where we locate infrastructure. It will be a world in which we will have to put in place the most ambitious mitigation and adaptation we have ever seen and at a scale we have never done before.<\/p>\n

There is only one crucible in which that sort of future can be forged in a way that ensures some level of equity and justice for everyone<\/a>, and that is in the world’s cities. The backbone of the world’s cities is housing<\/a>. So in many ways, this future that we’re looking at in a post 1.5\u00b0C world will have to be forged through a new approach to housing in our cities<\/a>. And why is that?<\/p>\n

\"Global<\/a>
Global surface temperature anomalies, 1973-2023, show widespread warming across nearly every region of the planet. Visualization: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio. Key and title by Eric Fisk. Source: Wikimedia Commons.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Our primary need is not only rapid emissions reduction<\/a>, but also carbon dioxide removal<\/a>. The reality is we now live in a world where we will have to approach the 1.5\u00b0C target from above<\/a>, not below. And that means removing carbon from the atmosphere. How are we going to achieve that? There are only two big systems that can remove carbon from the atmosphere at the scale we need.<\/p>\n

\"In<\/a>
In Asia, forest planner placing red and yellow tags on trees that should not be cut because they are part of a carbon sequestration research project. Source: Bridget Besaw \/ Aurora Photos \/ IPCC Photo Library<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The two big systems that can do that for us are the natural<\/a> and built environment<\/a>. There is recent research that shows that the built environment can take about 16 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon<\/a> out of the atmosphere every year. That’s just under half of our current emissions. So there is a huge opportunity for cities not only to reduce emissions but also to remove carbon from the atmosphere. The new challenge for our cities is to move beyond net zero to net negative emissions.<\/p>\n

The natural environment<\/a> of course also offers a significant opportunity to remove carbon from the atmosphere. But the natural environment is also going to be under stress in an overshoot, peak and decline world. We showed during the IPCC\u2019s sixth assessment cycle<\/a>\u00a0that the first irreversible losses<\/a> we’ll be able to detect as we move beyond 1.5\u00b0C will be in the natural world. So many of the Nature-based Solutions<\/a> that we rely on now in our cities as being cost-effective and sustainable may no longer be fit for purpose in a world post 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n